Conspiracy Theorists – please stop using the Biased Expert Fallacy

conspiracy theories - kid with telescope

Conspiracy Theorists – please stop using the Biased Expert Fallacy

It’s lazy, it insults the reader’s intelligence, and most importantly, it’s unethical.

The very best way to ensure that I don’t take seriously your warnings about your favourite conspiracy theory is to suggest, without clear evidence, that the regulator must be in cahoots with the industry/government. As soon as I see or hear that in a presentation, my bullshit detectors are on full alert.

What is the Biased Expert Fallacy?

We’ve all seen it – a regulator’s credibility is called into doubt because they used to work for one of the major companies in the industry they are now responsible for overseeing.  The implication being that because they are a “poacher turned gamekeeper” they will be unduly biased towards their former colleagues in the industry.

Assumptions – (they make an Ass out of U and Me)

That makes two very big assumptions: firstly that someone who has been in an industry can’t object to some of its less savoury practices; and secondly that simply having worked in an industry that you’re now regulating somehow automatically makes you dodgy. There is no rational reason to believe either of those things.  The first is simply illogical, as I will explain in a moment. The second is just insulting to the vast majority of regulators, most of whom do a spell in industry before crossing the divide into regulation.

Bordering on the libelous

A more pernicious form of the fallacy is to then go and suggest that the regulator is somehow ‘in the pocket’ of the big players in an industry. Or worse (and regrettably we see this all too often around the ‘alternative news’ and ‘truth warrior’ sites), questions are asked about whether the individual regulator is taking back-handers for their approvals, or for turning a blind eye.

And all that is typically wrapped up in a cowardly, arse-covering cop-out like “I’m not saying this is so, but just ask yourself …” Theorists, if you really believe somebody is on the take, have the courage of your convictions and make a straight accusation, don’t wrap it up in plausible deniability crap to save yourself from getting sued for your slanderous bile. That’s just cowardly.

To be clear, I’m not talking here about industries in which the regulator is voluntarily funded by the participants. There is a very clear ‘agency problem’ with that arrangement – which is why a number of the more questionable industries opted for voluntary regulation before it got foisted on them by statute. I’m talking about accusing individuals of malfeasance with no evidence whatsoever.

But I digress.

Why we need expert regulators

The people best placed to know whether individual players within an industry are up to something undesirable, are the very people who understand the industry. Experts who know that a particular process cuts corners or carries dangers that the layman wouldn’t recognise.  And who better to know the corners that get cut, than someone who has been on the inside, seen it first hand and decided to do something about it?

Someone on the inside

As I said earlier, the Biased Expert fallacy assumes that nobody from an industry can object to its dodgy practices. But surely it’s equally likely that an industry insider who then joins the regulator will be doing so precisely because they are concerned about dodgy practices, and they want to control them without risking their livelihood.

These insider experts know where to look, they know the questions to ask, they recognise incomplete answers, and they know how to spot abuses as they are happening.

The end-game

So what happens if the Biased Expert fallacy is allowed to take hold? The logical end-point is that no regulator will ever employ someone from within the industry, for fear of their credibility or impartiality being challenged. Or, at best, no-one from within the industry could ever rise to head up a regulatory body – which is not exactly going to encourage quality recruitment to regulatory positions.

We then end up with toothless and incompetent regulators, around whom the miscreant players can run technical rings, baffling them with industry jargon that the regulator isn’t up to speed about.  Sure, we can employ academics as regulators, after all, they should be at the cutting edge of the technology and theory.  But there is no substitute for someone who has actually been at the coal-face and can call bullshit on excuses and justifications.

Regulators with good intent

My biggest issue with the excessive use of the Biased Expert Fallacy is that it comes from a place of assuming wrong-doing. Anyone who has been employed in an industry is assumed to be crooked, or at least looking out for their mates, not the public. And heaven forbid that they should have been successful in the industry, and risen to any position of power – now they absolutely must be dodgy to want to join a regulator!

Whatever happened to innocent until proved guilty?

Damaging credibility (yours, not theirs)

Lazy conspiracy theorists all over are making the same mistake, of accusing potentially well-meaning regulators of self-interest purely on the basis that they have worked in the industry they are regulating. That results in a great many such accusations being defeated through simple lack of evidence. Or worse still, through evidence to the contrary.

And that’s a real problem for those of us who wish to challenge the accepted paradigms and are open to exploring whether the path(s) the world is on are in fact the best ones for humanity and the planet. Because every false accusation, every lazy assertion, every claim that doesn’t have adequate basis in demonstrable fact, each and every unjustifiable cry of “Wolf!” makes it harder for the real good guys to expose the real bad guys.

It’s lazy, it’s ineffective, and it harms your cause. Stop it.

Why they want us beFUDdled …

Have you ever wondered why governments and the mainstream media are always so keen to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt by reminding us how much danger we are in, everywhere and every day?

Whether that’s from ‘a massive influx’ of refugees, or being ‘swamped’ by immigrants from other parts of the EU (substitute other neighbouring state if you’re not from the UK); from drugs gangs or wildfires or just people of some other religion; or from the latest ‘unstoppable’ health pandemic (that mysteriously stops almost overnight – or at least doesn’t get reported any more).  Or any one of dozens of things that we are told could harm us / kill us / ‘destroy our way of life’.

Because their mates in the Military Industrial Complex want to sell them more tanks and guns and missiles, right?

Well, no, not really.  Or perhaps I mean ‘not only’ – that is certainly one of their objectives.

But there’s a far bigger reason why propagating an atmosphere of fear is good for those who seek to control us.

Physiologically, there is a big effect that fear has on us: it puts us into “Fight or Flight” mode.  As well as diverting resources away from our organs to our extremities – the bits we need to either hit people or run away – it also closes down our finer reasoning ability.

There’s a good evolutionary reason behind that: we really don’t want to be having an internal debate about that sabre-toothed tiger’s intentions towards us, and whether we might be able to avoid conflict if we talk to it nicely.  We just want to – need to – either lop off its head, or leg it! Any other thought process is redundant until the threat (feeling of fear) has passed.

And there’s a good political reason behind ‘our masters’ wanting us to be constantly afraid: it stops us getting wise to what they are up to.

When we are in a state of constant fear (or uncertainty, or doubt), our critical thinking is impaired, and we don’t see what is going on.  We don’t notice our rights being slowly eroded, in the guise of protecting us from what they have made us fear.  We don’t see the subtle (and not-so-subtle) diversion of our tax money to their mates in the arms and drugs companies.  We don’t realise that our economies are being slowly undermined by fake ‘money’ that is nothing more than bits and bytes in a computer programme.  And we don’t see that cash is steadily being outlawed – and it’s the only way we get to operate outside of the electronic net (hmmm, interesting use of language there) they have us all tangled up in.

The simple reason fear, uncertainty and doubt is so valuable to those who seek to govern us, is that it stops us thinking straight!