What if they’re not out to get you?

And what if it’s not all a government conspiracy?

With all the fun & games of Sunday’s UK Emergency Warning test, the thing that worries me most isn’t that some people didn’t get the message broadcast. Obviously, for those who didn’t get it, that may have been a bit of a concern. But you know, it’s technology, so it’s going to go a bit wrong. I’m sure they’ll eventually work out what didn’t quite go according to plan.

No, what worries me is how easily it is for some people to go straight to: “Oh no, the government conspiracy are out to get me again!”  All over social media I’m seeing people claiming it’s all some government plot to keep us on our toes. Frequently the same people who were telling us three years ago that Covid was all a hoax, but let’s not go down that particular rabbit-hole.

Seeing government conspiracy everywhere

It must be so exhausting to constantly believe the people elected by the system you help support with your taxes are all evil geniuses intent on doing you down!  Personally, I prefer to believe that the majority of elected representatives are good people. And intent on making our lives a little bit better.

I can’t deny, there are a good number of deluded fools who think they have an answer us mere mortals can’t understand. Their faith in their solution carries a very attractive energy. Especially in a complex world where most of us are struggling with how all the myriad influences work on each other. What the US military loves to call VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous).

So they get elected, and when elected, they find it relatively easy to garner support, and to rise to the top.

I have to admit there are a fair few complete scoundrels too. People who are either knowingly criminal, or simply too devoid of any sort of moral and ethical compass to realise they’re breaking some pretty fundamental rules of human conduct. 

They don’t play by the rules. Or in some cases, even realise there are rules the rest of us play by. So if we’re not careful these miscreants also have a habit of sneaking their way to the top.

Because the confident often suffer from what one author eloquently described as “the sin of certainty”, and the unsavoury simply don’t care, these charismatic leaders are very hard to challenge.  The fools dismiss any opposition as foolishness. The scoundrels simply disregard it.

Which all sounds a little like I think they’re all out to get us, doesn’t it? And the easy option is probably to believe that.

Why easy?

Because if you accept that these all-powerful demagogues and tyrants are acting against your best interests, you have a simple choice: to confront or to avoid.

Confrontation may indeed be productive in dealing government conspiracy. Many ill-conceived or badly-executed policies have been changed in the past by direct action. But it usually comes at a rather high cost, fiscally and societally. Avoidance, on the other hand, generally takes the form of sullen non-compliance. Or possibly operating outside of the system (and outside of the law). And it rarely makes much of a difference at all.

A different choice

But I believe there’s a third choice: to engage. 

And that’s going to take a lot more effort.

In Stephen Covey’s The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Habit 5 is “Seek first to understand, then to be understood”.  A wise man* once advised me that in business one should always assume good intent. I believe that is also true of politics.  He also shared a very useful question. “What has to be true in their [model of the] world, for that behaviour [or policy] to make sense?” This is at the heart of true engagement with those with whom we disagree. And it’s why engagement is such hard work. It requires us to think differently.

It requires us to find the sense in the nonsensical.

Another point of view

When you start to see the world from the point of view that makes the government’s seemingly-nefarious activity something rather less wicked, you are then in a position to alter it. If you don’t like the way things are, you have to convince the powers-that-be that they’ve got it wrong. When the argument starts from the reasons they think they’ve got it right, it’s far more likely to be persuasive. It’s far more likely to create change.

So my invitation to you is to choose to believe that government, and those in it, have a genuine desire to improve your nation’s lot. And if you think they’re getting it wrong, to engage in the democratic process and help them to help you.

Because the alternative is just too depressing to even contemplate.

More on a similar topic here: https://life7bn.com/assuming-good-intent/


*William Buist, erstwhile president of the now-defunct (officially at least) Ecademy Blackstar network, with whom I don’t always agree but with whom I’ve had many interesting and challenging conversations over the years (and not a few beers).

Photo by Jordhan Madec on Unsplash

Assuming Good Intent

suspicious woman

My many more suspicious friends often ask me why I don’t suscribe to the many conspiracy theories they try to convince me about.

Right now, as England hovers on the brink of finally coming out of Covid social restrictions, many of my friends are frantic that the rise of the Delta variant is going to be used as an excuse to keep us all restricted for longer. They believe there is some big conspiracy to do us all harm in some way.

It’s the same with all the conspiracy theories. Somehow “big government”, “big pharma”, “big agriculture”, in the end, big brother of some description, is trying to do us all harm.

The bit I never quite manage to get out of them is … to what end? Is there some murky elite somewhere who are somehow getting off on making us all suffer?

Frankly, that’s a world-view that is just so depressing to me that if it was true, I’d rather not be around.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that I think governments, big business, or the banks get it right all the time. They don’t, in fact they make some colossal cock-ups.

But I choose not to believe that when they get it wrong, it’s because they hate me and want to hurt me. As far as I’m concerned, everybody on the planet is doing what they believe is for the best, for the world they want to be part of. Sure, they may not be actively seeking to help me specifically, I may even be entirely irrelevant to them.

I choose to believe that the vast majority of humanity wants a happy world for everyone, and I simply cannot see the point of assuming anything different. How would it serve me to spend my entire life angry at some faceless “them” that’s out to get me?

So instead, I choose to assume everyone’s acting with good intent, that when they do things that don’t work out well, it’s because they didn’t think it through.

Maybe I’m naïve. But I’m a whole lot happier than most conspiracy theorists I know!

Conspiracy Theorists – please stop using the Biased Expert Fallacy

conspiracy theories - kid with telescope

Conspiracy Theorists – please stop using the Biased Expert Fallacy

It’s lazy, it insults the reader’s intelligence, and most importantly, it’s unethical.

The very best way to ensure that I don’t take seriously your warnings about your favourite conspiracy theory is to suggest, without clear evidence, that the regulator must be in cahoots with the industry/government. As soon as I see or hear that in a presentation, my bullshit detectors are on full alert.

What is the Biased Expert Fallacy?

We’ve all seen it – a regulator’s credibility is called into doubt because they used to work for one of the major companies in the industry they are now responsible for overseeing.  The implication being that because they are a “poacher turned gamekeeper” they will be unduly biased towards their former colleagues in the industry.

Assumptions – (they make an Ass out of U and Me)

That makes two very big assumptions: firstly that someone who has been in an industry can’t object to some of its less savoury practices; and secondly that simply having worked in an industry that you’re now regulating somehow automatically makes you dodgy. There is no rational reason to believe either of those things.  The first is simply illogical, as I will explain in a moment. The second is just insulting to the vast majority of regulators, most of whom do a spell in industry before crossing the divide into regulation.

Bordering on the libelous

A more pernicious form of the fallacy is to then go and suggest that the regulator is somehow ‘in the pocket’ of the big players in an industry. Or worse (and regrettably we see this all too often around the ‘alternative news’ and ‘truth warrior’ sites), questions are asked about whether the individual regulator is taking back-handers for their approvals, or for turning a blind eye.

And all that is typically wrapped up in a cowardly, arse-covering cop-out like “I’m not saying this is so, but just ask yourself …” Theorists, if you really believe somebody is on the take, have the courage of your convictions and make a straight accusation, don’t wrap it up in plausible deniability crap to save yourself from getting sued for your slanderous bile. That’s just cowardly.

To be clear, I’m not talking here about industries in which the regulator is voluntarily funded by the participants. There is a very clear ‘agency problem’ with that arrangement – which is why a number of the more questionable industries opted for voluntary regulation before it got foisted on them by statute. I’m talking about accusing individuals of malfeasance with no evidence whatsoever.

But I digress.

Why we need expert regulators

The people best placed to know whether individual players within an industry are up to something undesirable, are the very people who understand the industry. Experts who know that a particular process cuts corners or carries dangers that the layman wouldn’t recognise.  And who better to know the corners that get cut, than someone who has been on the inside, seen it first hand and decided to do something about it?

Someone on the inside

As I said earlier, the Biased Expert fallacy assumes that nobody from an industry can object to its dodgy practices. But surely it’s equally likely that an industry insider who then joins the regulator will be doing so precisely because they are concerned about dodgy practices, and they want to control them without risking their livelihood.

These insider experts know where to look, they know the questions to ask, they recognise incomplete answers, and they know how to spot abuses as they are happening.

The end-game

So what happens if the Biased Expert fallacy is allowed to take hold? The logical end-point is that no regulator will ever employ someone from within the industry, for fear of their credibility or impartiality being challenged. Or, at best, no-one from within the industry could ever rise to head up a regulatory body – which is not exactly going to encourage quality recruitment to regulatory positions.

We then end up with toothless and incompetent regulators, around whom the miscreant players can run technical rings, baffling them with industry jargon that the regulator isn’t up to speed about.  Sure, we can employ academics as regulators, after all, they should be at the cutting edge of the technology and theory.  But there is no substitute for someone who has actually been at the coal-face and can call bullshit on excuses and justifications.

Regulators with good intent

My biggest issue with the excessive use of the Biased Expert Fallacy is that it comes from a place of assuming wrong-doing. Anyone who has been employed in an industry is assumed to be crooked, or at least looking out for their mates, not the public. And heaven forbid that they should have been successful in the industry, and risen to any position of power – now they absolutely must be dodgy to want to join a regulator!

Whatever happened to innocent until proved guilty?

Damaging credibility (yours, not theirs)

Lazy conspiracy theorists all over are making the same mistake, of accusing potentially well-meaning regulators of self-interest purely on the basis that they have worked in the industry they are regulating. That results in a great many such accusations being defeated through simple lack of evidence. Or worse still, through evidence to the contrary.

And that’s a real problem for those of us who wish to challenge the accepted paradigms and are open to exploring whether the path(s) the world is on are in fact the best ones for humanity and the planet. Because every false accusation, every lazy assertion, every claim that doesn’t have adequate basis in demonstrable fact, each and every unjustifiable cry of “Wolf!” makes it harder for the real good guys to expose the real bad guys.

It’s lazy, it’s ineffective, and it harms your cause. Stop it.